UNITED STATES AND LATIN AMERICA
Revolution in Cuba.—The opposition to President Machado in Cuba, which has been steadily increasing for the past three years, broke into open revolution during the first part of August and swept aside the Machado regime and all the machinery which General Machado had built up for retention of power since his first election to the presidency in 1924. The crisis began with a general strike which spread rapidly to all branches of industry. On August 9 there was an outbreak of rioting in Havana on false reports of Machado’s resignation, during which 30 were killed and many were wounded by the administration police. Ambassador Welles, who had long been attempting mediation between the opposing factions, at this time presented a formula for the solution of the situation which involved President Machado’s vacating his office. This the administration leaders refused to accept. On August 9 the President declared a state of war throughout the island. By August 11 it became clear that the Army was no longer behind the administration, and on the next day Machado was forced by Army leaders to take flight by airplane to Nassau, Bahama Islands.
Aside from the mediatory efforts of Ambassador Welles, the United States government took no steps toward intervention during the crisis. President Roosevelt in August 9 issued an appeal to all elements in Cuba to abandon political strife, and after Machado’s downfall American destroyers were present briefly in Havana Harbor. This, however, had no influence on the course of events on the island. In fact, it was generally recognized that the chief effect of the Platt Amendment and the possibility of American intervention had been to prevent the revolution from coming sooner than it did.
On August 13 Dr. Carlos Manuel de Cespedes, former ambassador to the United States 1914—22, was made temporary president and named a cabinet composed largely of leaders of the ABC group and other revolutionary elements. Despite the agitation for immediate reforms, it appeared unlikely that any changes of consequence would be made before the next presidential elections, which will come normally in February, 1934. American Ambassador Sumner Welles was expected to return to Washington September 15 to resume his work in charge of the Latin- American division of the State Department. His successor at Havana, Mr. Jefferson Caffery, will again take up negotiations for a new trade agreement between Cuba and the United States, and upon their outcome, involving the prospect of a continued tariff preference and an increased quota for Cuban sugar entering the United States, the fate of the new Cuban government will very largely depend.
New Haitian Agreement.—On August 6, United States and Haitian representatives signed at Port au Prince an “executive agreement” providing for the complete removal of American marines from Haiti by October 1, 1934, and providing also for a further relinquishment of American control of Haitian finances. This new agreement is practically identical in terms with the treaty negotiated last year which was rejected by the Haitian Senate, but, unlike the treaty, it can be put into effect without legislative approval. Its provisions include the appointment of an American fiscal representative and deputy, who may have not more than 18 Americans on their staff as compared with 50 heretofore, and who will retain supervision of the Haitian customs service. The administration of internal revenue is turned over wholly to Haiti.
This settlement of the Haitian problem, with its establishment of a definite date for the removal of American military forces, is expected to have a happy effect on the next pan-American conference, which is scheduled to meet at Montevideo in December. It is reported that Secretary Hull may head the American delegation to this conference, and that the United States may propose there that the Monroe Doctrine be adopted as a reciprocal agreement among all American nations, and along with it the Roosevelt proposal for a mutual non-aggression pact.
ABC Mediation in the Chaco.—At the close of August reports of intensified fighting on a wide front in the Chaco emphasized the slight progress made in the world’s efforts to end this South American war. In response to requests from both belligerents the League of Nations in August turned over the task of mediation to the neighboring ABC nations—Argentina, Brazil, Chili, and Peru. The latest proposal of these nations, still not fully approved among themselves, was: (1) an immediate cessation of hostilities; and (2) a double-barreled arbitration, first to determine the zone to be arbitrated, and second to consider its final disposition.
American Trade Negotiations.— With the failure of the London Economic Conference, increased attention has been given by the U. S. Department of State to the improvement of trade relations with various South American nations, especially Colombia, Brazil, and Argentina. Negotiations with both Colombia and Brazil were opened during August. As an instance of the possibility of improved trade with these South American neighbors, it is pointed out that Colombia’s exports to the United States in 1932 amounted to $52,400,000, or four-fifths of her total exports, but that only a very small part of this sum was spent in purchase of American goods.
Leticia Conference.—According to an announcement of the Brazil Foreign Office, the conference for settlement of the Leticia dispute between Colombia and Peru is to meet at Rio de Janeiro about October 6.
INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS
Wheat Accord.—The World Wheat Conference, meeting in London as an aftermath of the London conference and including representatives of 31 nations, succeeded on August 24 in achieving a general acceptance of the draft treaty which the four chief wheat producing countries—Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the United States— had submitted for its approval. The agreement in effect provides for a 15 per cent decrease in wheat production on the part of the chief producing nations and a limitation of exports next year to a total of 560,000,000 bushels. Of this total Canada’s quota is to be about 200,000,000 bushels, Australia’s 110,000,000, Argentina’s about 110,000,000, United States’ 47,000,000, Russia’s 50,000,000, Danube States’ 50,000,000. The importing nations on their part agree to encourage wheat consumption, restrict their own production, and reduce their tariffs on wheat in a corresponding measure whenever the price of wheat entering free at Liverpool rises above 63.08 cents a bushel.
Arms Reduction Prospects.—Returning to Europe at the close of August in order to take up negotiations preliminary to the reopening of the Limitation of Armaments Conference on October 16, the American representative Mr. Norman H. Davis, was reported to be carrying with him as his most helpful contribution to future discussions President Roosevelt’s approval of the French plan for international supervision of the armament production of each nation; with this inserted in the British proposals, along with the Roosevelt idea of limitation to defensive armament, there seems to disarmament advocates at least a fighting chance that something may yet be accomplished at Geneva. For this Chairman Arthur Henderson is reported as preparing to make a supreme effort in this next—and possibly last—session of the conference.
CENTRAL EUROPEAN POLITICS
Austro-Italian Entente.—As an outcome of the visit of Austrian Chancellor Dollfuss to Premier Mussolini at Riccione at the close of August, Italy and Austria were brought to a political and commercial understanding of wide implications. In the first place, it became clear that Italy would stand squarely behind the present Austrian government in opposition to Nazi propaganda for an Austro-German Anschluss. In the second place it indicated, that Italy was ready to offer Austria a market for her manufactures, and other commercial advantages which would be the best practical means of enabling Austria to stand alone and thus removing the necessity of such a union. Taken along with the closer commercial relations recently developed between Italy and Hungary, the Riccione visit meant a closer cooperation between Italy and both states of the old Hapsburg empire. Whether this rapprochement is altogether in harmony with the policies of England and France in Central Europe is, of course, another question. France wants an independent Austria, but not an Austria linked too closely with Italy.
Specifically, the following measures were reported to have been agreed upon at Riccione:
Italy will concede to Austria a free zone in the Port of Trieste for her over-seas trade at a nominal annual payment.
Austria will found a mercantile fleet under government auspices which will fly the Austrian flag and have its headquarters at Trieste.
Austria will concentrate as much as possible of her mercantile traffic, especially that directed toward the Mediterranean and the Near East, in Trieste, which also will become the chief port of embarkation for Austrian emigrants.
Italy will grant preferential treatment to imports from Austria.
Italy will purchase more goods in Austria, which will become the chief source of supply for imported manufactured goods for all state-controlled organizations such as the Italian state railroads.
Protests on Nazi Propaganda.-After mutual consultation, Italy, France, and England agreed early in August to remonstrate with Germany against the widespread Nazi propaganda in Austria for an Austro-German union, on the ground that such activities were in violation of Art. 80 of the Versailles Treaty and also contrary to the spirit of the recent four- power pact to maintain the peace of Europe. Accordingly the French and British ambassadors at Berlin presented identical notes of protest, while the Italian government confined its action to informal oral representations. The French and British notes were brusquely treated, but Italy received assurances that Germany would put some curb on the propaganda in the future. Border incidents, however, continued, as well as inflammatory radio broadcasts from the Nazi station in Munich, and notes scattered by German airplanes in Austrian territory.
Stronger Austrian Army.—To meet the threat of Nazi domination, the Austrian government, apparently with the consent of the Western powers, announced late in August a new military organization which would enable her better to meet dangers from both without and within. The new organization, constituting a definite violation of the military clauses of the St. Germain peace treaty, will enable Austria to call out each half-year from 8,000 to 10,000 men for six months’ compulsory training, and will thus create a strong militia system to supplement the regular Army, which is limited to 30,000 men. The need of such safeguards has been emphasized by the recent general exodus of Austrian Nazis into Germany, presumably for the purpose of joining an armed movement to bring Austria into the Nazi sphere.
BRITISH COMMONWEALTHS
Assyrian Massacres.—Ever a source of trouble in the Near East, and especially through their appeal to British sentiment, the Christian Assyrians again appeared in the news in mid-August, when it was reported that 500 or more of them had been killed by Kurdish troops in England’s former mandate state of Irak. From news accounts it appeared that the Assyrians themselves were in part responsible. A rebel band of Assyrians had crossed from Irak to French Syria and had there promised to surrender their arms, but had fallen upon and destroyed a small Iraqui detachment sent to receive their surrender. Massacres of the Assyrian minority in Irak followed in consequence.
FAR EAST
China Sea Islands Dispute.—The Japanese government on August 21 sent a long note to the French government protesting the action of France last July in formally annexing 9 small coral islands situated in the China Sea about midway between French Indo-China and the Philippines. The islands total less than 300 acres but have been exploited somewhat by Japanese phosphate and guano interests. The Japanese note is reported as not setting up a claim of sovereignty but as disputing the legality of the French occupation and demanding protection of Japanese interests. France is said to regard the islands as of possible value as bases for seaplanes and small naval craft.
Buffer for Jehol.—Following the recapture of the city of Dolonnor, Chahar province, by a force of 6,000 Japanese and Manchurian troops, Japanese authorities at the close of August announced that the demilitarization of a border strip of Chahar would be demanded as a further protection to Jehol, and “in accordance with the spirit of the Tangku truce.” It was also announced that Japan would not evacuate the 5 passes in the Great Wall or the city of Shanhaikwan at its seaward end until given further assurances as to the future policy of the Nanking government and especially of its finance minister, Mr. T. V. Soong, recently returned from a tour of the Western nations.
Military Estimates.—Despite the truce with China, Japanese military estimates for 1934-35 show a 45 per cent increase. The naval estimates call for an appropriation of ¥680,000,000 ($190,400,000), of which about $180,000,000 is for new construction and $75,000,000 for modernization of capital ships. The army estimates call for an appropriation of ¥560,000,000 ($156,800,000).